After Trump won the election of the President of the United States, some policies or affect the flow of commodities, styrene butadiene rubber as the end product of the industrial chain, the policy of imposing tariffs or increasing the cost of finished products exported in the field of styrene butadiene rubber consumption, thus affecting the consumption of styrene butadiene rubber.

The United States accounts for 13% of global styrene butadiene rubber production capacity

According to the monitoring data of Zhuo Chuang Information (301299), the global styrene butadiene rubber production capacity is expected to be 6.817 million tons in 2024, of which milk polystyrene butadiene rubber production capacity accounts for 62%, and dissolved polystyrene butadiene rubber production capacity accounts for 38%. Asia's styrene butadiene rubber production capacity accounted for the largest proportion, accounting for 58.9%, the Americas accounted for 20.24%, China, the United States in Asia, the Americas accounted for the first. From the perspective of the proportion of various countries, China accounts for 28% of the global styrene butadiene rubber production capacity, is the world's main supply country of styrene butadiene rubber, from the perspective of styrene butadiene rubber consumption flow, Chinese consumption accounts for 60% of global consumption, China is an important production and sales area of styrene butadiene rubber. The United States accounted for 13% of the global styrene butadiene rubber production capacity, in recent years, the United States styrene butadiene rubber has not added capacity, mainly because of the poor profit stability of the industry.

The tariff policy has no significant impact on the supply of styrene butadiene rubber in China

In 2020-2024, China's styrene butadiene rubber imports from the United States trading partners are basically around 12,000 tons, and there is no obvious increase trend in the past five years, accounting for less than 4% of the total imports of styrene butadiene rubber, mainly in the way of incoming processing trade. China's styrene-butadiene rubber import trading partners are mainly South Korea, Poland, Singapore, Russia, Japan and other countries, in 2024, China's Styrene-butadiene rubber imports from Russia ranked first, and the proportion continued to expand. From January to October 2024, the top five trading partners of China's styrene butadiene rubber imports are Russia, South Korea, Singapore, Germany, and Thailand, and the TOP5 account for 75% of the total imports. Russia continues to dominate with 26%, followed by South Korea with about 21%. Among them, the proportion of goods imported from South Korea in the total import has declined, and the proportion of goods imported from Russia has increased. In 2024, China's styrene butadiene rubber production capacity is expected to reach 1.875 million tons, accounting for about 28% of the global styrene butadiene rubber production capacity, the country's output is expected to continue to increase, and the new production is mainly concentrated in high-end styrene butadiene rubber, at present, China's styrene butadiene rubber high-end grade part from the United States, the overall import from the United States accounted for less than 4%. From the proportion, Trump's tax reduction and manufacturing return policy have no impact on styrene butadiene rubber imports.

The imposition of tariffs on China's styrene butadiene rubber demand has not been affected

In 2020-2024, China's styrene butadiene rubber exports to Southeast Asia account for about 75% of the total exports. From January to October 2024, the top five export partners of China's styrene butadiene rubber are Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia and Malaysia. Among them, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia accounted for about 67% of the total, mainly because Chinese tire companies in Southeast Asia to build factories are mainly distributed in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and these countries greater than the demand for styrene butadiene rubber supply, so the import of raw materials increased dependence on styrene butadiene rubber. In the next five years, the overseas layout of China's tire factories is still expanding, and the main trading partners of China's exports may have certain changes. Pay close attention to the impact of the US trade policy towards other relevant countries on the overseas construction of Chinese tire factories and the export of styrene butadiene rubber.

The main downstream consumption area of styrene butadiene rubber is the tire industry, which accounts for around 75% of the downstream consumption of styrene butadiene rubber. China's semi-steel tire export dependence is high, close to 50%, so the semi-steel tire export market is an important part of tire consumption. From the data of nearly 10 years, the amount and proportion of China's semi-steel tire exports to the United States show a trend of decline year by year. In particular, in 2019, the amount of China's semi-steel tire exports to the United States declined significantly, the trade friction caused by trade policy in 2019 broke out, and the imposition of tariffs increased the cost of semi-steel tire exports to the United States in the background, the amount of China's semi-steel tire exports to the United States fell 65% year-on-year, accounting for about 2.5% of the total exports. As of 2024, the proportion of China's exports to the United States fell to 0.9%. Since the outbreak of trade friction tariffs in 2019, Chinese semi-steel tire companies have actively built factories overseas in order to avoid trade barriers, taking into account labor costs, raw material costs, etc. At present, they have built tire companies in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Serbia, Mexico and other countries, and will continue to layout to Africa in the future. Therefore, the Trump administration may impose tariffs on Chinese goods, which will not have a great impact on the existing consumption of styrene butadiene rubber, but it is necessary to pay attention to the policy changes of the United States for tire exports to various countries in Southeast Asia, and China's tire exports are still facing challenges.

　　Based on the above analysis, China's styrene butadiene rubber supply is low in dependence on the United States, and the dependence of China's semi-steel tire exports to the United States has also declined significantly, so the policy related to Trump's victory in the United States president is expected to have no significant impact on the styrene butadiene rubber industry. However, Trump plans to cut subsidies and policy support for new energy, which may reduce policy incentives for electric vehicles, and the growth rate of the global new energy market may be inhibited; The rise in China's high-end styrene butadiene rubber consumption is mainly driven by the rise in China's new energy vehicle production and sales, with the current situation of China's styrene butadiene rubber production capacity saturation, China's new energy vehicles still need to be recognized by more countries and regions, and pay close attention to the relevant countries' trade policies and the landing of the Trump administration's tariff policies.