First, butadiene and downstream industry chain price, profit transmission chart

Second, this month's market review analysis

In November, butadiene and downstream synthetic rubber prices fell, of which butadiene fell more than synthetic rubber, low cost and its own supply increment is the main factor for the decline in synthetic rubber prices. From the profit point of view, with the decline in the price of raw materials butadiene, as well as its own decline as raw materials, synthetic rubber profits continue to repair upward. Up to now, butadiene and downstream synthetic rubber have combined to achieve theoretical profits.

From the price point of view of the industrial chain, the price decline of butadiene in the month is greater than that of downstream synthetic rubber, and the supply increment is the key factor for the price decline. Tianjin Nangang butadiene new plant put into operation, the early maintenance device restarted, superimposed imported goods to the port to supplement, butadiene market supply increased, the price continued to fall. Affected by the decline in costs, downstream synthetic rubber prices have fallen. From the average monthly price, the average monthly price of butadiene was 10,288 yuan/ton, down 2557 yuan/ton from the average price last month, down 19.91%; Downstream butadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber, SBS, nitrile rubber monthly average price fell 12.47%, 7.84%, 12.72% and 5.00% respectively.

From the profit point of view, with the further decline of butadiene prices in the month, and the decline is greater than that of synthetic rubber, the theoretical profit of synthetic rubber products has been further repaired. As of the end of November, butadiene and downstream synthetic rubber all achieved profits, of which the theoretical profit of nitrile rubber exceeded 2000 yuan/ton; The average monthly theoretical profit of styrene butadiene rubber and SBS reached 1500-2000 yuan/ton, and even butadiene rubber and ABS also showed a profitable state, which was in sharp contrast to the overall negative profit before August. The improvement in profits has attracted the willingness to start construction of synthetic rubber parking devices. With the repair of profits, the start-up load of synthetic rubber enterprises has been improved, and even approached the highest level in the year. However, the increase in the starting load has increased the supply of synthetic rubber, reversed the price, and accelerated the decline of synthetic rubber.

Third, future market forecast

In December, with the improvement of the supply capacity of various rubber products, and the expected improvement of the demand side is limited, the price center of gravity is still expected to fall. On the one hand, the improvement of supply capacity comes from the improvement of profit repair load; On the other hand, from the source of imports to the port one after another. The demand side of the tire market load to maintain a steady trend, but affected by the impact of poor storage and new orders, the lack of incremental demand, it is difficult to form a positive pull on raw material prices. Therefore, in December, the price of butadiene and downstream products or continued to decline, and the factors affecting the price gradually shifted from natural rubber and macro to their own fundamentals. From the profit point of view, with the decline of raw materials and their own prices, synthetic rubber profits continue to repair, but it will also bring about an increase in the starting load, and then suppress the price, and the upward repair of profits is limited.

4. Focus on and risk warning

Category details describe influence

1. Pressure range of butadiene and synthetic rubber prices by supply increment

2 Profit improvement promotes the increase of synthetic rubber load

3 Effects of natural rubber and macro environmental changes on synthetic rubber